McDonald, Barry

Modelling correlated wind farms and the risk of extreme power fluctuations

Barry W. McDonald and Sheng Gong

Institute of Natural and Mathematical Sciences, Massey University, Auckland

Wind farms produce maximum power when the wind speeds are within a certain interval. Outside that interval the power output from a wind farm can change very dramatically with wind speed. If major changes occur at different farms, within a short time period, this can have serious short-term implications for the national power supply. We discuss some models for wind changes and power output changes in the light of the fact wind speeds at nearby farms are positively correlated.